BoT reveals plans to reduce GDP in 2023 after exports slowed. and tourist spending was not as expected. As for the "10,000 baht digital wallet" policy, which will use 500 billion baht or 3% of GDP.
Mr. Sakkapop Panyanukul, Senior Director Macroeconomic Department The Bank of Thailand (BoT) announced the economic and financial situation for July 2023, with the Thai economy still in the direction of recovery. Domestic spending increased from both private consumption and investment. In part, consumption benefited from the long holiday period. Factors supporting household purchasing power such as non-agricultural employment improved. Meanwhile, consumer confidence decreased somewhat due to uncertainty in the formation of the government. The number of foreign tourists, after removing seasonal factors, continues to recover. Especially Russian tourists, who are increasing the number of flights between Russia and Thailand. As for tourists of some nationalities, such as Australia, Singapore and Europe, the number decreased slightly. Meanwhile, government spending expanded from investment expenditures in transportation.
The value of merchandise exports decreased mainly from the electronics and agricultural categories. Especially hard disk drives going to Hong Kong and the United States, durian going to China decreased due to the end of season production. and chemicals to China and ASEAN Partly from the slowdown in demand from trading partners. Exports of automotive products increased after supply problems gradually resolved. Including the agricultural processing category that increased following exports of canned food to the European Union and animal feed to China.
Economic stability General inflation increased slightly from the energy category. according to the price of crude oil in the world market The fresh food category decreased from both the high base effect of the previous year. and falling prices of pork and vegetables. Meanwhile, core inflation decreased due to the high base effect of ready-to-eat food prices. The labor market is still recovering. This is reflected in the increasing number of insured persons in the social security system. Especially in the service sector As for the current account balance, the deficit from the trade surplus decreased mainly along with the value of exports. As for the exchange rate, the baht against the US dollar on average strengthened. This is because the market has lowered its expectations of the US Federal Reserve's policy interest rate increase. In addition, the situation of establishing the Thai government has a clearer direction towards the end of the month.
For the August 2023 trend, economic activities still rely heavily on the recovery of the tourism sector. Meanwhile, the merchandise export sector is still at risk. In the next period, we must follow up. Slowdown of the trading partner economy, new government policy and the impact of El Niño on agricultural production and prices.
“Although the economic situation is in the direction of recovery But due to the slowdown in exports and the amount of spending from tourists is not as expected, making the BoT likely to reduce its economic forecast (GDP) this year in the last quarter of the year,” Mr. Sakkapop said.
As for the new government's "10,000 baht digital wallet" policy To spend approximately 500 billion baht or 3% of GDP will be one round of money being rotated in the system because it is considered that if considering the form of transfer money People will continue to spend in their usual way of life, such as buying consumer goods. However, it remains to be seen for clarity on how it will be implemented. The BoT has not yet taken this policy into consideration as a factor in estimating GDP. and inflation this year.
Source: Thai News Agency