Bangkok 14 Aug – Thai Oil Public Company Limited expects the price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil this week to move within a range of 80-86 USD/barrel. Brent crude moved between $84-90/bbl. after being driven by tight supply amid the slowing down economy
Crude oil prices tend to remain stable. after being supported by tight supply conditions Due to cut production of OPEC. and the amount of crude oil and refined oil inventories of the United States which is likely to decline due to increasing demand, however, the price is still under pressure from profit taking From the price has increased quite a lot. and the global economy that tends to slow down from high interest rates and a slowdown in the industrial sector.
Key factors expected to affect oil price situation this week
Crude oil supply tends to continue to tighten. after OPEC led by saudi arabia Extending the period to reduce production by 1 million barrels per day for another month until the end of September 2023, while Russia reduced exports by 0.3 million barrels in September 2023 by OPEC reported crude oil production from the Crude Oil Producers Organization (OPEC) in July 2023 at 27.3 million barrels per day. This was 0.84 million barrels/day lower than the previous month. Led by a decrease in Saudi Arabia, which adjusted down by 0.9 million barrels per day to 9.0 million barrels per day.
US Crude Oil and Finished Oil Inventories tends to decrease As the demand for refined oil tends to grow, EIA reported that gasoline and diesel inventories on August 4, 2023 decreased by 2.7 and 1.7 million barrels, respectively, which is more than analysts had expected.
In its July 2023 monthly report, the International Energy Agency (IEA) maintained its 2023 oil demand growth rate, projecting that oil demand will increase by 2.2 million barrels per day to reach 102.17 million barrels. /day led by the rise of china This is in line with OPEC’s forecast that oil demand will continue to grow strongly this year.
The energy price crisis is expected to support energy prices to remain high. The price of natural gas in Europe has increased the most. Since the outbreak of the Russian and Ukrainian wars Workers in Australia have threatened to strike out at two LNG plants, which account for 10% of global output. If the price of natural gas increases, it will result in the use of oil instead. and cause the price of oil to increase
The inflation rate of the United States in July ’66 remained at a high level. Causing the US Federal Reserve (FED) to maintain interest rates. or increase interest rates to slow down the impact of inflation that is still at a high level The inflation rate and core inflation of the United States were at 3.2% and 4.7%, respectively. It is expected to affect the economy and demand for oil.
The Chinese economy still faces risks of a slowdown. and is expected to affect oil demand This is reflected in exports and imports in July 2023 that declined by 14.5% and 12.4% from the same period last year, respectively, reflecting a considerable slowdown in external demand. Meanwhile, China’s inflation rate dropped 0.3% from the previous month. reflecting a slowdown in domestic consumption
The US economy faces recession and slowdown risks after Fitch Rating downgraded the US government’s credit rating from AAA to AA+ on concerns over the government’s sovereign debt. which is still at a high level Over the next three years, while Moody downgraded the credit ratings of small and medium banks in the US. because there is a risk of funding And earnings began to decline due to high US interest rates.
Economics to watch this week are China July 2023 retail sales and industrial output, July 2023 US retail sales, and European Q2 GDP.
Summary of oil price situation in the past week (7-11 Aug. ’23)
West Texas Crude Oil Prices Last Week increased by $0.37/barrel to $83.19/barrel Likewise, Brent crude oil prices rose $0.57/bbl to $86.81/bbl. Dubai crude oil price The average closed at $ 87.89 / barrel. This is because the market is still supported by crude oil supply that tends to be tight. Due to the extension of the cut of Saudi Arabia’s production by 1.0 million barrels per day. Continue until the end of September ’23 and reduce Russian exports at about 300,000 barrels / day in September. 66 In addition, the unrest between Russia and Ukraine also intensified After the president of Ukraine said that Ukraine will shoot missiles at some Russian ports. in response If the Russian army continues to encircle Ukrainian territorial waters and threatened to prevent grain ships from entering or leaving Ukrainian ports. for the week ending Aug. 4, 2023, it rose 5.9 million barrels, more than analysts’ expectations of 0.6 million barrels.
Source: Thai News Agency