Bangkok: The world is witnessing a shift from reliance on universal laws to intense geopolitical competition, as highlighted by the recent US military operation against Venezuela. This development is seen as a "warning sign" for the global order and the balance of power among superpowers, which is evolving more rapidly and drastically than anticipated.
According to Thai News Agency, Venezuela was once among the wealthiest nations in Latin America, thanks to its oil industry and income redistribution policies under President Hugo Chavez. However, a combination of falling oil prices, inefficient management, and market interventions has led to a severe economic downturn, with per capita income levels in 2024 dropping to those seen more than 25 years ago.
The US intervention in Venezuela is not solely about law enforcement or drug suppression. Structural analysis indicates that energy resources and geopolitical interests are the primary drivers. As Venezuela holds the world's largest oil reserves and is situated in a region deemed the US's "strategic backyard," the country's growing ties with China and Russia have heightened its strategic importance.
The use of military force without UN approval challenges the credibility of international rules and sets a precedent for other major powers to follow similar reasoning. This raises concerns about the future adherence to "universal rules," particularly amidst tensions in East Asia between China and Taiwan.
In the short term, Venezuela's situation is not expected to impact global oil prices significantly due to reduced production and lower quality oil. However, a long-term recovery in production could lead to decreased oil prices, benefiting the US oil industry.
For Thailand, these events underscore the importance of understanding global geopolitics and taking a clear stance to protect national interests. The Thai government must implement structural reforms to enhance competitiveness and governance, with an eye on joining the OECD to drive economic growth and reduce corruption.
The world is moving towards an era where "power" may outweigh rules, necessitating that medium-sized countries like Thailand develop a deep understanding, long-term vision, and the courage to make structural decisions to navigate global changes effectively.