Bangkok: The world is entering a major turning point in geopolitics, economics, and technology. Professor Taweesuk Thamsak points out that the past year was not just a year of volatility, but a "turning point in the new century of global industry." The end of the Third Industrial Revolution and the full entry into the Fourth Industrial Revolution mean that old ways of thinking and living are no longer applicable.
According to Thai News Agency, in the geopolitical dimension, the world is in the process of a third world war, though not yet fully erupting. It is a war in a new context, overlapping military, financial, economic, and technological aspects. Conflicts ranging from Eastern Europe and the Middle East to Asia reflect the collapse of the old world order, and the world is moving towards an era of "the jungle," where power and bargaining strength take precedence over international rules.
Professor Taweesuk views Western countries, particularly the United States and Europe, as facing severe structural problems, including high public debt, aging populations, and welfare states that have become a burden on the economic system. Therefore, war is not just a matter of security, but an economic tool to 'clear debt' and reclaim power in the global system.
The most dangerous aspect this time is the unprecedented global economic downturn. Even during the 1997 and 2008 crises, China was a key engine supporting the global economy. However, this time, even China itself is facing pressure as global interest rates enter a permanently high era, and global GDP growth is not keeping pace with the massive interest payments from huge debt levels.
In this context, traditional businesses with low profit margins face severe pressure. Professor Taweesuk frankly stated that many businesses may only have two options left: "a major restructuring" or "closing down before bankruptcy" to avoid becoming trapped in an inescapable debt crisis.
While the West weakened, China emerged as a clear game-changer. Last year marked China's successful "technological liberation" from US restrictions. From semiconductors and AI operating systems to quantum computing and photonic chipsets, China chose its own technological path, not necessarily conforming to the West, but growing at exponential speed.
At the heart of China's success lies the integration of the state, private sector, and academic institutions. From educational reform and the development of a massive workforce in technology, to utilizing large technology companies as the core of infrastructure, China has become a "global testing ground" and is ready to export hardware, software, and urban management systems worldwide.
In the financial dimension, the world is moving towards a post-dollar era. China and the BRICS countries are reducing their reliance on the dollar, shifting towards using local currencies in international trade, and continuously increasing their gold holdings. Gold is once again becoming a key benchmark for the global financial system.
For Thailand, Professor Taweesuk emphasized that medium and small-sized countries should not take extreme sides, but should position themselves based on their national interests. They must build flexibility in their financial systems, technology, and economic structures. Most importantly, they must upgrade the skills of Thai people to understand and seriously utilize AI as part of their lives and businesses, because the new world waits for no one and leaves no room for those who do not adapt.