Jakarta: A conversation with Associate Professor Dr. Piti Srisangngam, Executive Director of the ASEAN Foundation in Jakarta, Indonesia, highlighted that 2026 is not just the year after, but also the year Thailand will face major structural challenges. This is a crucial time for us to determine our future direction for the next 10-15 years.
According to Thai News Agency, many agencies predict next year's economic growth will be lower than this year's, especially when compared to ASEAN neighbors like Singapore, Vietnam (growth of 6% or possibly exceeding 7.5%), and the Philippines (6.7%), while Thailand's growth is less than 2%. Dr. Piti emphasized that Thailand is at the "last resort" point. If the country cannot seriously escape the "middle-income trap" by 2029 or 2030, the window of opportunity for technological, supply chain, and human resource readiness may close permanently.
The most important event for Thailand to watch in 2026 is October, when Thailand will host the IMF/World Bank Annual Meeting. To use this opportunity to present the country's new image and Mega Projects, planning and construction of these projects must begin early in the year, giving approximately 8-9 months to send a clear signal at this global meeting. The lack of long-term policy continuity due to political uncertainty (elections likely in the first half of the year) makes planning difficult. Real leaders should propose bold and modern programs for the next 10 years, rather than competing with populist policies or short-term economic stimulus.
Dr. Piti pointed out that instead of focusing on 10 or 100 industries, Thailand should focus on just 3-5 industries with high potential, long supply chains, and significant impact. Three industrial groups that should be urgently invested in over the next 10-15 years are biodiversity-based products, the aerospace industry, and health and wellness. These industries offer significant growth potential and can have widespread impacts on the economy.
The country can learn from South Korea and Malaysia, which have both made strategic plans to escape the middle-income trap. South Korea invested in high-speed rail and the Hallyu Wave, while Malaysia developed a plan called the Multi-Super Multimedia Corridor. Malaysia is now on the verge of becoming a semiconductor manufacturer, showcasing the potential of strategic planning.
In addition to long-term economic planning, it is important to prepare for contingencies such as natural disasters and political changes in ASEAN. Thailand must shift its mindset from worrying about drought to seriously preparing for floods. Additionally, global trends and policy frameworks throughout 2026 will impact Thailand, making it crucial for the country to plan a clear strategy for the future.