Bangkok:The National Economic and Social Development Council (NESDC) has assessed that the global oil price crisis is expected to persist at high levels for an extended period, primarily due to infrastructure damage in the Middle East.
According to Thai News Agency, the Secretary-General of NESDC, Mr. Danucha Pichayanun, indicated that unresolved conflicts in the Middle East are a significant factor contributing to the prolonged high oil prices. He highlighted that the damage to oil production facilities is extensive, and restoration efforts are hampered by supply chain limitations and transport challenges.
Mr. Danucha mentioned that the United States has refrained from serious military intervention, unlike in past conflicts such as the Gulf War, due to pressing internal issues. Additionally, the recent US midterm elections, which saw a decrease in Republican seats, may lead to a slowdown in foreign war policy pursuits.
Despite rising oil prices affecting Thailand's consumer price index, Mr. Danucha remains optimistic that inflation will stay within the target range of 3%. However, he noted the current account balance is under scrutiny due to increased oil import costs linked to a weaker baht.
Thailand has diversified its oil supply sources and slowed urgent imports, even amid a 50% surge in imports last month. Mr. Danucha explained that a detailed quarterly analysis is needed to determine whether these imports, particularly capital goods like machinery, could signify positive economic growth.
Regarding economic stimulus, Mr. Danucha stated that current domestic consumption is robust, with private consumption growth at approximately 3.7%. The tourism sector is also showing resilience, with increased per capita spending compensating for lower tourist numbers.
The export sector is poised for growth, with new electronics component manufacturing plants nearing completion and ready to commence production for export soon.