Bangkok: Kasikorn Research Center (KRC) maintains its 2026 GDP growth forecast for Thailand at 2.0%, despite facing economic challenges such as crude oil prices exceeding US$100 per barrel due to the Middle East conflict. According to Thai News Agency, the KRC anticipates a slowdown in the second half of the year, influenced by weaker export performance. However, the center expects continued momentum from foreign direct investment (FDI), the "Thai Tourism Plus" campaign, and the 50 billion baht energy transition budget to partially offset the slowdown.
Ms. Nataporn Treerat Sirikul, Deputy Managing Director of KRC, highlighted that private consumption saw a boost from the "Thailand Helps Thailand Plus" measures in the third quarter, although core household purchasing power remains weak. Private investment, particularly FDI, continues to be a primary growth driver but may lead to a trade deficit due to necessary imports of machinery and equipment.
The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is expected to maintain the interest rate at 1% for the year, with the baht projected to trade at 33.80 baht per US dollar. Large corporate loans are anticipated to maintain growth above 5.0% year-on-year, though SME and retail loans are still in a deleveraging phase. The non-performing loan ratio could rise slightly by the end of 2026, despite efforts in debt restructuring.
Economic stimulus measures, including the "Travel Thailand" campaign, are expected to show significant effects by the fourth quarter of 2027. Meanwhile, the El Ni±o phenomenon poses a risk of increased inflation through rising crop prices, though annual inflation is expected to stay below 2%.
Dr. Rujipan Assarat, Assistant Managing Director of KRC, emphasized that the Thai automotive industry is at a turning point. While domestic car production is projected to decline in 2026, imports, especially of battery electric vehicles (BEVs), are increasing. Government measures are being considered to support the domestic production of environmentally friendly vehicles, which could lead to a revival in car production growth by 2027.