Tokyo: Japan estimates that a "major earthquake" could shake the metropolis of Tokyo, risking the lives of up to 18,000 people.
According to Thai News Agency, the latest estimates from the Japanese government indicate that a powerful earthquake with a high probability of occurring in Tokyo and surrounding areas in the coming decades could result in up to 18,000 fatalities. The government working group has based this latest damage assessment on the assumption of a possible 7.3 magnitude earthquake centered south of central Tokyo. This figure represents an approximately 20 percent reduction from the 2013 assessment due to improved earthquake-resistant building construction and fire prevention measures.
The economic damage in the worst-case scenario is estimated at 82.6 trillion yen, which equates to approximately 16.65 trillion baht, showing a decrease from a previous calculation of 95 trillion yen or about 19.11 trillion baht. The Japanese government further estimates a 70 percent chance of an earthquake of magnitude 7 on the Richter scale occurring in Tokyo and its surrounding areas within the next 30 years.
The worst-case scenario predicted involves an earthquake occurring on a winter evening with wind speeds reaching 28.8 kilometers per hour. This scenario is expected to result in fatalities across Tokyo and four surrounding prefectures, with Tokyo alone potentially accounting for up to 8,000 deaths, representing more than 40% of the total estimated death toll.