Bangkok: Academics have identified four pivotal factors that could alter the dynamics of the upcoming elections in Thailand: the advantage held by the Bhumjaithai Party, the tarnished image of the Pheu Thai Party, the influence of the new generation, and the economic performance in the fourth quarter, which will be crucial in shaping the future of Thai politics.
According to Thai News Agency, Somchai Phakphasnwiwat, an independent economist and political scientist, has provided an in-depth analysis of the political landscape involving the Bhumjaithai (BJT) and Pheu Thai (PTP) parties. Both parties are currently under scrutiny due to their management of the flood crisis. Phakphasnwiwat noted that while the delays in providing aid may lead to public dissatisfaction, there remains a critical period before the elections during which various factors could sway voter opinions.
Phakphasnwiwat highlighted four essential factors that will influence voting decisions. Firstly, the economic recovery in the fourth quarter of 2025, particularly in alignment with GDP figures, will be a significant determinant. Secondly, the outcomes of trade negotiations between the United States and Thailand could also play a crucial role. Thirdly, the agreement between Thailand and Cambodia to resolve ongoing disputes will serve as a direct assessment of the current government's capabilities. Lastly, the popularity of individual candidates in each area will have a considerable impact on voter turnout.
The Bhumjaithai Party currently enjoys an advantage as the ruling party, with the opportunity to boost the economy. However, its response to the flood crisis may result in a loss of voter support. Conversely, the Pheu Thai Party's reputation has suffered, leading to diminished confidence among some segments of the population.
The People's Party (PPP) is perceived as a party with potential for growth, largely due to its robust support from the younger generation and its previous success in securing top-ranking votes. However, it remains to be seen whether the PPP can reclaim its leading position in the forthcoming elections.
Phakphasnwiwat concluded that the outcome of the elections remains uncertain and will largely depend on the government's performance in the remaining months before the nation fully enters election mode.