Bangkok: The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has indicated that the current El Ni±o phenomenon is intensifying to a very severe level, with expectations of it continuing until early 2027. This development raises concerns about significant shifts in global temperature and rainfall patterns over the coming years.
According to Thai News Agency, the WMO predicts that El Ni±o will reach its peak severity by the end of 2026, with a nearly 100% chance of persisting until February 2027. This intensification is likely to alter climate conditions globally, affecting numerous regions differently based on other climate drivers. Professor Celeste Saulo, the Secretary-General of the WMO, highlighted the current impacts, including drought and flooding, urging for enhanced preparedness and response strategies.
The forecasts from the WMO's global forecasting center suggest an unprecedented level of consistency and reliability, marking the first time the WMO El Ni±o/La Ni±a Update report has provided such a definitive forecast. The central to eastern tropical Pacific Ocean's Ni±o 3.4 index, which measures sea surface temperature anomalies, shows a significant rise, further indicating the intensification of El Ni±o.
Sea surface temperatures have reached unusual highs, with some areas recording temperatures over 8 degrees Celsius above average during July and early August. Alongside reinforcing oceanic and atmospheric signals, these conditions contribute to the likelihood of El Ni±o intensifying further.
The WMO's multi-system model forecasts a high probability of above-normal land temperatures from September to November 2026, with rainfall patterns set to mirror El Ni±o's influence in the Pacific. While a severe El Ni±o increases the risk of extreme weather events, its impacts will vary by region and season, influenced by other climate factors like the Indian and Atlantic Oceans.
Professor Saulo emphasized the unprecedented collaboration within the WMO's 50-year history, involving national meteorological and hydrological agencies worldwide. The organization partners with UN agencies and humanitarian groups to provide essential climate data for disaster management and support sectors such as agriculture, public health, energy, and water resources.