Bangkok, July 31 – Kasikorn Research Center Specify the MPC meeting on August 2, 2023. The MPC is expected to raise the policy rate by 0.25 percentage points to 2.25% and may raise it for the last time in this rising interest cycle.
Kasikorn Research Center estimates that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is likely to raise the policy rate by 0.25 percentage points to 2.25% at the MPC meeting on August 2, 2023, according to has signaled Although the inflationary pressure has decreased significantly. Because the Thai economy has a continuous recovery direction. The Thai economy in the second half of this year is expected to grow at a higher rate than in the first half. The main supporting factor is the recovery of the tourism sector. Meanwhile, inflation is still at risk of accelerating again in the second half of this year. Amid uncertainty about commodity price trends and the pass-through of costs from producers to consumers. This is a factor that encourages the MPC to continue to raise the policy rate. To increase the ability to conduct monetary policy (policy space) in the future, if there is a situation that causes the MPC to cut the policy rate going forward.
However, the policy rate hike at the MPC meeting on Aug. 2 may be the last policy rate hike in this upward cycle. While if the Thai economy continues to recover in the second half of 2023 as expected, the MPC is likely to maintain the policy rate at 2.25% until at least the end of 2023.
However, amid declining inflationary pressures Meanwhile, inflation direction going forward is likely to be within the BOT’s target range of 1-3%, although it may accelerate from near-zero levels during May-June. In addition, various central banks around the world, led by the US Federal Reserve (Fed), are approaching the peak of this cycle of upward interest rates. As a result, the pressure on the baht tends to decrease.
“The MPC’s policy rate hike at the meeting on Aug. 2 may be the last hike in the interest rate cycle. while looking ahead If the Thai economy continues to recover in the second half of this year as expected, the MPC is likely to keep the policy rate at 2.25% continuously at least until the end of 2023,” said the Kasikorn Research Center. . – Thai News Agency
Source: Thai News Agency