Bangkok: The National Economic and Social Development Council (NESDC) announced that Thailand's GDP in the second quarter of 2026 expanded by 1.9%, marking a slowdown from the 2.8% growth observed in the first quarter. According to Thai News Agency, the full-year growth forecast has been revised to a range of 2.0-2.5%, with a midpoint estimate of 2.2%, an upward adjustment from the 2.0% forecast in May.
Mr. Danucha Pichayanun, Secretary-General of the NESDC, highlighted that after seasonal adjustments, the economy contracted by 0.2% in the second quarter. The period saw a rebound in private sector investment, while private consumption, government spending, and merchandise exports experienced slowdowns. Government investment also decreased during this time.
The production sector, encompassing agriculture, forestry and fisheries, industrial goods manufacturing, accommodation and food services, and other sectors, experienced a slowdown compared to the previous quarter. Regarding economic stability, the unemployment rate rose to 0.69%, while the average headline inflation rate was 2.7%, with core inflation at 1.0%. The current account balance recorded a deficit of US$17.7 billion, the first in eight quarters. International reserves at the end of June 2026 were US$279.2 billion, and public debt stood at 12.9 trillion baht, or 66.9% of GDP.
For 2026, the Thai economy is expected to grow between 2.0% and 2.5%, with key support from private investment growth, household consumption, merchandise exports, and government spending. Private consumption and investment are projected to expand by 2.6% and 9.6%, respectively, while exports in US dollars are expected to grow by 15.1%. The average inflation rate is anticipated to range between 1.5% and 2.0%.
Potential challenges for 2026 include global economic uncertainty, the impact of El Ni±o on agriculture, and high levels of household debt and deteriorating credit quality for SMEs.