Bangkok: Next week, investors and market analysts will closely monitor Middle East activities and capital outflows following a significant weakening of the baht to a three-month high, which led to a 7.7% decline in Thai stocks.
According to Thai News Agency, the Kasikorn Research Center (KRC) has reported that the Thai stock market experienced a sharp decline, with stocks falling more than 7% over the course of a week. This drop triggered a circuit breaker as the Thai baht continued to weaken. The KRC predicts that the baht's trading range for the upcoming week will be between 31.30-32.10 baht per dollar. Support levels for Thai stocks are anticipated at 1,345 and 1,300 points, with resistance levels projected at 1,425 and 1,460 points.
Kasikorn Research Center noted that the Thai baht's depreciation was consistent throughout the week, aligning with the trend in Asian currencies. The strengthening of the US dollar, driven by safe-haven buying amid Middle East tensions, contributed to this decline. Concerns about the economic impact of rising global oil prices and the net selling of Thai assets by foreign investors further pressured the baht. On March 6, 2026, the baht closed at 31.94 baht per dollar, nearing its weakest point in nearly three months at 31.95 baht, exacerbated by capital outflows exceeding 32 billion baht from both Thai stock and bond markets. The risk of US inflation continues to bolster the dollar and diminishes the likelihood of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut this year.
For the week of March 9-13, 2026, Kasikorn Bank forecasts the baht to trade within a range of 31.30-32.10 baht per US dollar. Key factors to watch include the Middle East situation, foreign fund flows, movements of Asian currencies, global gold prices, and significant US economic data such as consumer inflation expectations, existing home sales, February's CPI, and others. Additionally, the market is awaiting Chinese economic data including the CPI, producer price index, and February export figures.
Regarding last week's Thai stock market movements, the SET Index witnessed a sharp decline mid-week, following global stock market trends. This was driven by escalating Middle East tensions after US and Israeli attacks on Iran and related retaliatory measures, which included shipping restrictions through the Strait of Hormuz. Investor risk aversion led to a sell-off, causing the index to drop over 100 points, or around 8%, triggering a Level 1 Circuit Breaker. A brief recovery occurred following news of ceasefire attempts and additional parliamentary election results, but uncertainty caused further weakening by week's end. On Friday, March 6, 2026, the SET closed at 1,410.37 points, a 7.71% decrease from the previous week, with an average daily trading volume of 110,482.78 million baht, a 24.51% increase. The mai index closed at 218.11 points, down 5.62%.
For the following week, Kasikorn Securities Co., Ltd. projects that the Thai stock index will have support levels at 1,345 and 1,300 points, with resistance levels at 1,425 and 1,460 points, respectively. Key factors to monitor include the tense Middle East situation, domestic political issues, and foreign capital flow directions. Important US economic data encompasses existing home sales, February's CPI, housing starts, and more. Other significant international economic factors include China's February CPI and PPI, Japan's Q4 2025 GDP and February PPI, and the Eurozone's January industrial production figures.