Bangkok, May 18 – Thai stocks closed higher for the first day after the election. President of the Analysts Association I don't believe that the Kao Klai Party is the Pheu Thai Party. should be able to form a government successfully before the opening of the House of Assembly in july
The Stock Exchange of Thailand closed today (May 18) at 1,526.69 points, an increase of 3.95 points, with a trading value of 54,749 million baht, slowing down from the rebound in the morning closing, which increased by more than 16 points after negotiations on the formation of the government ended. progress Including starting to see support from Some senators in voting for the prime minister While negotiations to expand the US debt ceiling have a positive development This is the first positive close after three days after the election. Thai stocks dropped nearly 40 points in total.
Mr. Paiboon Nalinthrangkun Chief Executive Officer TISCO Securities Co., Ltd. as the President of the Investment Analysts Association Posted a comment on Facebook on May 16, the past that The results of the elections add to the uncertainty in the market. because it is a political polarization change The establishment of the government may not be easily aligned. Because aside from no party getting more than half of the votes The first and second parties also had very close points. This means that the pair can lead the formation of the government.
Will the Thai stock market have a chance to recover in the second half of the year? It is believed that there is a possibility of a "catch-up rally" in the Thai stock market. Because the Thai stock market underperforms the global stock market by almost 15% this year and the Thai economy is likely to accelerate in the second half of the year. both from the tourism sector that should accelerate further China's stronger recovery and the aftermath of economic stimulus by the new government
while the US economy and many European countries There is a high chance that it will enter a temporary recession in the second half of the year. This should make investors start to move more money into Asian stock markets.
In this situation, the Thai stock market tends to become a "safe haven" or "safe haven" for world investors again, like last year. which should reduce foreign sales force But the chance to see the Thai stock market rise sharply is still unlikely. until the Fed begins to cut interest rates. Or until the market is convinced that the Fed will definitely cut interest rates.
“I think there is very little chance that the Fed will cut interest rates this year. because inflation is still higher than the normal range and the labor market in the United States still very strong The most appropriate timing would be early next year. This means that global stock markets have a chance to return to an upward trend later this year. or early next year
Political risk is likely to be a short-term factor. because he believes that in the end Neither the Kao Klai Party nor the Pheu Thai Party should be able to form a government successfully before the opening of the House of Assembly In July, ”said Mr. Paiboon.
Mr. Paiboon stated that he had to admit that it was wrong to expect that the Thai stock market had moved in negative territory for almost the past 3 months. in spite of the economic activity in the country is clearly more active As can be seen from the number of foreign tourists who travel to the country on average more than 2 million per month, inflation has returned to the range of the Bank of Thailand below 3%, Thailand's interest rates are still almost the lowest in the world. The baht began to appreciate and most of the 1st quarter budget came out well.
Many analysts attributed the weakening global economic outlook. is the main factor that pulls the stock price down Because Thailand relies on exports of goods up to 60% of GDP. Surprisingly, the stock market of many countries that export at a high level, such as South Korea (+10%), Taiwan (+10%). ) and Japan (+12%) US stock market itself was up 7%
This year, the NASDAQ stock market, which includes tech stocks, is up 17%, despite the US at the root of almost all the negatives. Whether it's the fastest interest rate hike in history Many banking crises Including the problem of the public debt ceiling that has no solution.
Even large countries in Europe such as Germany, France and Italy faced economic downturn and energy security risks. Those countries' stock markets are still up 15% this year.
The most disappointing thing is The Thai stock market did not react positively to this election at all. either before or after the election Although elections are usually a positive factor that has a relatively high influence on stock prices, among all 47 markets in the Developed Markets and Emerging Markets group, which cover almost 100% of the world's stock market value, only 9 stocks declined in 2017. this And Thailand was the stock market that fell the most.
“I believe that the main reason for the Thai stock market to fall this year Investors set their hopes too high on the benefits that would happen to the Thai economy from China's opening-up policy. It is expected that Thailand will benefit immediately from the resuming of China's economic activities. But in reality, China is not recovering as hot and fast as you think.
high expectations This made Thailand one of the few stock markets that rose last year. While most stock markets have dropped an average of 20% this year when the Chinese economy has not recovered as quickly as expected. In addition, some Thai commercial banks began to show signs of deterioration in loan quality. We therefore began to see selling pressure in the stock market. Including starting to see the continuous sale of shares by foreign investors. which sells Thai stocks as high as nearly 9 billion baht over the past 3 months After continuing to buy throughout the past year.-
Source: Thai News Agency