Bangkok: The Trade Policy and Strategy Office (TPSO) has highlighted the continued growth of Thai fruit exports to China, while cautioning about a potential decline in rice and sugar exports. The Thai Trade Center forecasts a promising average annual growth rate of 6.1% for Thai fruits in the Chinese market over the next decade. However, rice and sugar trades face challenges due to China's anticipated reduction in imports. Thai exporters are encouraged to shift focus to high-quality, premium, and processed products to adapt to China's growing self-reliance in agricultural production.
According to Thai News Agency, Mr. Nantapong Chiraleartpong, Director of the Office of Trade Policy and Strategy (OTPS) of the Ministry of Commerce, has disclosed findings from a study on China's agricultural and food market trends from 2026 to 2035. This study, based on the China Agricultural Outlook 2026-2035 report, suggests that China will increasingly become self-sufficient in food production, particularly in grains and meat, which will affect the direction of its agricultural imports.
The report predicts that by 2025, China's grain production will reach a historic high of 715 million tons, with total meat production surpassing 100 million tons for the first time. In contrast, China's corn and wheat imports have seen significant reductions, while exports of vegetables, fruits, and aquatic products have increased, reflecting an enhanced domestic production capability and a strategic focus on food security.
Despite the increase in Chinese fruit exports, domestic consumption trends suggest opportunities for continued fruit imports. The report projects that China's fruit imports will grow at an average rate of 6.1% annually over the next decade, maintaining a long-term trade deficit in fruits. Additionally, fruit consumption is expected to rise at an average annual rate of 1.2%, reaching approximately 369 million tons by 2035.
The TPSO sees potential for the expansion of Thai fruits in China, particularly premium and processed products, aligning with China's demand for high-quality goods. In the meat sector, processed chicken shows growth potential, with Chinese imports expected to reach 1.27 million tons by 2035, presenting an opportunity for Thailand's high-standard processed chicken. Additionally, imports of beef and lamb are anticipated to increase.
The fisheries sector also holds promise, with China's imports of aquatic products projected to grow at an average rate of 1.6% per year, reaching around 8.08 million tons by 2035, thus opening the market for Thai shrimp and processed seafood.
Conversely, the rice sector poses challenges as China's rice imports are expected to decline by an average of 9.1% per year, reducing to about 0.95 million tons by 2035. Concurrently, increased Chinese rice exports may heighten competition for Thai rice exporters. Similar concerns arise for sugar, as China's domestic production is projected to grow by 2.5% annually, decreasing import demand to approximately 4 million tons by 2035.
Mr. Nanthapong anticipates that the Chinese agricultural and food market will evolve from a high-volume import market to one focused on higher-quality and more diverse products over the next decade. This shift aligns with projected income growth in urban and rural areas, alongside an increase in the urban population, which will drive demand for premium, processed, and health products.
Thai businesses are advised to shift from quantity competition to value addition, quality enhancement, and brand development, especially in the fruit sector, which is a strength for Thailand. Moreover, developing processed chicken and seafood products to cater to health-conscious Chinese consumers is crucial. Diversifying export markets is also recommended to mitigate risks associated with declining demand for rice and sugar in China.