Bangkok: The University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce (UTCC) has adjusted its GDP growth forecast for Thailand in 2026 to 2.5%, attributing this change to significant contributions from exports and tourism. According to Thai News Agency, the UTCC highlights a robust economic recovery, characterized by increased private sector investment and ongoing export expansion, leading to this revised growth outlook.
Mr. Thanawat Pholvichai, President and Chief Advisor of the Center for Economic and Business Forecasting at UTCC, noted that Thailand's economy expanded by 2.4% in the first half of the year. This growth was propelled by private sector investment, which has shown expansion over five consecutive quarters, indicating a stable growth trajectory.
In the second quarter, private sector growth reached 13.4%, with investment in equipment and technology rising by 16.6%. This growth rate was notably higher compared to the 1.1% expansion in buildings and construction. Additionally, exports increased by 16.1% during this period, marking the highest growth in several quarters.
The technology sector is anticipated to maintain its momentum into the latter half of the year, driven by the global demand for AI. Consequently, the GDP forecast for Thailand in 2026 has been revised upwards to 2.5% from the earlier projection of 2.0% in May. Total investment is expected to grow by 8.8%, an increase from the previous forecast of 3.7%.
Private sector investment is projected to rise by 10.8%, up from the previous forecast of 3.9%, while exports are expected to grow by 17.8%, compared to the earlier projection of 8.8%. Overall, both agricultural and non-agricultural sectors, along with private and government consumption, are expected to see slight increases.
Despite the positive outlook, uncertainties persist, including the outcomes of the US tax investigation, the sustainability of AI investments, Middle East conflicts, and potential lower-than-expected international tourist arrivals.
Mr. Thanawat emphasized the 'K-shaped' economic pattern as a structural issue needing reform across four key pillars to ensure equitable growth distribution and enhance business competitiveness globally amidst ongoing US tariff pressures. For 2027, the UTCC forecasts Thailand's GDP growth at 2.5%, with the potential to reach 3%, driven by a 7.4% expansion in exports.