Kasikorn Research Center maintains GDP in 2023 at 3.7%, indicating GDP in the second half of the year to grow 4.3%, keep an eye on political uncertainty - Chinese economy - drought. Risk factors dragging confidence-investment
Miss Nattaporn Treeratsirikul Deputy Managing Director of Kasikorn Research Center Co., Ltd. revealed that the research center maintains its economic growth forecast (GDP) at 3.7%, with the economy in the second half likely to expand better than the first half of the year at 4.3%. from the first half of the year at 3.0%. The growth also comes from the tourism sector that continues to expand, expected at 28.5 million people and private consumption that improves from 3.3% to 3.8%. In the first quarter/ 2023 The actual figure grew by more than 5% due to increased spending in the tourism sector and Looking ahead, it is expected to grow at an average of 3% due to the issue of interest rates that continue to gradually increase. And the high level of household debt and tight control of the Bank of Thailand (BOT) measures, including the new government's economic stimulus measures, will it come out in time or not? which is an issue that pressures consumption
Challenges that still need to be watched and affecting the Thai economy will be an issue of political instability which if the establishment of a new government is delayed And still being the acting government until the third quarter of 2023 will begin to affect investor confidence. And from such uncertainty, the research center has adjusted the private investment forecast from 2.8% to 2.0%, ”said Ms. Natthaporn.
In addition, the direction of China's economic growth must be monitored. Which may affect the growth of the Thai economy through the number of tourists that are expected to reach 5 million people may not reach and Thailand's export sector to China, which accounts for about 12%, is the second largest of all exports. This year, Thai exports to China are expected to grow at 3.4% and expect growth in the export sector for the year 2023 at -1.2% due to a slowing global economy.
The 3.7% GDP figure does not include uncertain political factors. which must wait to see the results of the Prime Minister's vote How is it each time? Because there are variables as a variety of elements, including 8 coalition parties Regarding the vote of the Senate (Senator), if there is a protest, it depends on what level of violence it has. because the image and the effect will look different What investors are waiting to follow are various policies, short-term and long-term reforms. The most important thing is that the face of the government must be clear first. to invoke confidence, "Ms. Natthaphon said.
Ms. Kevalin Wangpichayasuk, Deputy Managing Director of Kasikorn Research Center, said that the drought problem is one of the problems that will affect the economy. Especially the “El Niño” phenomenon that started in May and is expected to drag on to the middle of 2024, which may put pressure on the agricultural sector. production and services that require a high proportion of water, especially in the central region and the eastern region that will be affected quite by the research center The damage to the agricultural sector is estimated this year at 4.8 billion baht, or about 0.2% of GDP.-Thai News Agency
Source: Thai News Agency