Bangkok: The financial market is closely observing the upcoming Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting on August 13th to determine whether there will be any adjustments to interest rates. This meeting is a significant focus for investors looking for direction in the Thai baht and stock market performance.
According to Thai News Agency, the Kasikorn Research Center estimates that this week’s market performance will be influenced by the MPC meeting, foreign fund flows, and the earnings of listed companies. The baht is projected to trade within a range of 32.10-32.80 baht per dollar. Meanwhile, the Thai stock index is anticipated to have support levels at 1,230 and 1,215 points, with resistance levels at 1,280 and 1,300 points.
The previous week saw the baht strengthen, driven by market anticipation of a potential rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September. The baht hit a peak of 32.25 baht per dollar, buoyed by weak US ISM data, concerns over President Donald Trump’s tax policies, and issues between Trump and the Fed. However, gains were slightly reduced due to position adjustments ahead of the holiday period, with the market keenly monitoring the MPC meeting outcome.
For the current week, Kasikornbank projects the baht to remain within the specified trading range. Key factors to be monitored include the MPC meeting’s outcome, trends in foreign fund flows, and global gold prices. Additionally, significant US economic figures and international economic data from China, the UK, the Eurozone, and Japan will be pivotal in guiding market sentiment.
In the Thai stock market, last week witnessed the index climbing to a nearly six-month high of 1,280.78 points, in tandem with regional markets. This rise was largely spurred by foreign investor buying, fueled by expectations of a Fed rate cut in September and renewed interest in large-cap stocks, including a major airline resuming trading post-rehabilitation. However, the index saw a decline towards the week’s end as investors adjusted positions before the domestic holiday.
Looking ahead, Kasikorn Securities Co., Ltd. has identified support levels at 1,230 and 1,215 points, with resistance at 1,280 and 1,300 points. The Kasikorn Research Center highlights the importance of the MPC meeting, second-quarter earnings of Thai companies, and foreign capital flows as key elements to watch. The release of critical US economic data, as well as important economic indicators from the Eurozone, Japan, and China, will also be instrumental in shaping market movements.