MCOT, July 6- “Yutaporn” is confident that he will vote for the prime minister no more than 3 times, assesses the chances of “Pita” 50:50, suggesting that the chances of reversing the poles are high.
Mr. Yuthaporn Issarachai, Lecturer at the Faculty of Political Science Sukhothai Thammathirat Open University Mentioned the first election of the Prime Minister on July 13 that can come out in both ways: 1. Unable to find a solution. leading to the second or third vote, which was the nomination of Mr. Phitha Lim Chareonrat The leader of the party and the only candidate for the Prime Minister of the Progressive Party. whether there will be 64 senators to fill up to 376 votes or not from the ruling coalition with 312 votes Possible either from the case of voting for Mr. Pita up to 376 votes or sending a couple against Mr. Pita Which the comparable will come from a different pole with Mr. Phitha, ie 188 votes, must not forget that 250 senators, when combined with the original power pole, will get 438 votes, able to vote for the prime minister immediately, that is, will be a minority government But if able to loosen the knot of the minority government Opportunity to see the vote from the original power in a single roll. and go to solve the problem of minority government in the future, there is a possibility
As for the fact that even though he was in the position of Prime Minister, if he was forced to become a minority government, it would be unstable and it would be difficult to move on. there will be difficulties in working Because going to campaign for another 70 votes in the House of Representatives is not easy. Because the House of Representatives this time are 2 major parties, namely the Kaow Klai Party and the Pheu Thai Party. If getting more votes, it must come from these 2 big parties, which have a small chance. the birth of a minority government It is possible to think of staying in office for 2 to 3 months and then announcing the dissolution of parliament leading to new elections.
“What is interesting is the signal from 77 votes of the Bhumjaithai Party in selecting the 1st Deputy Speaker of the House of Representatives, which reflects the lack of unity of the former coalition government. Reflecting on the image that there may be movements in 188 voices, including sending signals to the 8 coalition parties, the far-reaching party Asked whether it was sent to the Progressive Party or not. The answer is that it is useless because the Progressive Party is a party without nets or political sub-groups. At most, one or two votes were obtained, which were not helpful. While Pheu Thai is a large party that has been in politics for a long time. There are more subgroups and political nets, so moving the political nets must come 20 30 40 votes, so 77 votes is a signal to the Pheu Thai Party that there will be an opportunity to come together. and a reversal of the poles can occur Today, if we take the 312 votes of the 8 coalition parties, minus 151 of the far-reaching parties, there will be 161 votes. If combined with 77 votes, we will get 238 votes, close to half of the 500 votes in the House of Representatives. Therefore, it is interesting for 77 signals that there is an opportunity to reverse the political polarity. which if there is a political polarity reversal must pass the first round of votes, choose Mr. Phitha, do not pass 376 votes first, otherwise the Pheu Thai Party must accept it in full, ”said Yutthaporn.
As for the case of many senators who used to vote for Mr. Phitha, he asked to go back and review. Therefore, there is a high probability that there will be a second round of votes, right? will see the attitude of about 20 senators who announced to support Mr. Phitha Which, despite having 40 votes for the senator, when combined with the 8 coalition parties to form a government, still does not reach 376 votes, so 64 votes from the senator is a very difficult problem. And near the vote for the Prime Minister, Mr. Phitha had to face many more checkpoints. Both filing complaints, section 82 of the constitution Regarding holding media shares What will the Election Commission say? Or there may be at least one of the 10 MPs submitting the petition themselves.
“As for the second stage Regarding the political game in the House of Representatives, there is an added variable, senator. 250 people, which may have qualifications, prohibited characteristics and various lawsuits that will be raised as issues that prevent the senator from voting for Mr. Phitha. For not voting, there are 2 types, which are no votes, not accepting the names of Mr. Phitha and the Kao Klai party, or no votes, which is abstaining. Either way, it will definitely make Mr. Phiphitha’s voice less than 376, while Stage 3, various lawsuits go to the Constitutional Court and various organizations, meaning that Mr. Phitha still faces many more checkpoints. And these checkpoints are why senators pick up all The chances of seeing the senators’ movements on the day of the prime minister’s election are very high, ”said Yutthaporn.
Mr. Yutthaporn said that if divided into 3 groups, namely supporting Mr. Phitha, the no-vote group and the no-vote group abstaining. in which the groups with no votes and no votes than support groups While the story of Mr. Pita’s supporters, until today, the negotiating group has not revealed how many senators have already received clear, definite and who’s names are there? If the Kao Klai Party and the negotiating committee can reveal these information, it will give confidence to the Kao Klai Party and Mr. Phitha as well.
As for the case of Mr. Kittisak Rattanawaraha, senator clearly stated that If they are two prime ministerial candidates from Pheu Thai Party Ready to support on the condition that there is no far-reaching party Is the coalition party a clear signal or not? The Pheu Thai Party is the best option for conservatives at this time, so you will see the process coming out to support the Pheu Thai Party. of opposite poles The process of polarity reversal is therefore possible. and have the opportunity to vote for the Prime Minister from the Pheu Thai Party
“Today for Mr. Phitha, only 50 to 50, while 2 prime ministerial candidates from the Pheu Thai Party, namely Mr. Srettha Thavisin and Ms. Pae Thongtarn Shinawatra, have the opportunity to become Prime Minister 40 % or more, and another candidate for the Prime Minister On the other side, for example, Gen. Prawit Wongsuwan has a 50-to-50 chance, or Mr. Anutin Charnvirakul has a chance of becoming prime minister at 40% or more. Because for the conservatives The Pheu Thai Party is a better option than the Kao Klai Party,” Yutthaporn said.
When asked how much they can pull together and how they will end up together, Assoc. Prof. Dr. Yuttaporn said that at most no more than 3 times, otherwise it will affect confidence. Political stability will be an issue. If so, it will lead to other problems. economic problems society and overview Therefore, the long process of voting for the prime minister may not happen. Opportunity to vote in a single roll is possible. especially from the original power pole In addition, pressure gatherings may occur. Therefore, a one-roll voting process would be an option. Because when the vote for the prime minister is complete and the result of the selection cannot be changed Therefore, it is something that cannot be overlooked.
“Nowadays, the people are part of the political players. Unlike in the past, the political process was elected and representatives of the people took office. And the problem that arises is that the mechanism or rules are designed to defeat the voice of the people. Majorities with less power and minorities with more power, such as in the case of 250 senators, these processes are things that have to answer legitimacy to the people, which will cost the country to pay. There are many as well, ”said Mr. Yuttaporn.-Thai News Agency.
Source: Thai News Agency